ETF Corner
Here some big winner in the ETF corner. Let's first check out the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) this EFT was a big winner when the Silver Trust (SLV) rose 1.9% reaching now $124.48.
Also, this ETF rose 1.2% based from the holdings of Apple (AAPL), and with the new of the new Apple iPhones and Apple TV. The EFT corner takes a loook at the Internet Architecture HOLDRs (IAH) which boosted up 52 cents to $44.46.
The B2B Internet HOLDRs (BHH) was rising as Checkfree (CKFR ) gained 1.2%. The ETF was ahead by 2 cents, or 0.9%, to $2.23.
On the flip side, the Wireless HOLDRs (WMH) was a big loser. Component Sprint (S) was falling 10% after the big telco said it lost 306,000 subscribers in the quarter ended Dec. 31 and disclosed plans to slash 5,000 jobs. The ETF was falling by $1.24, or 2.1%, to $59.16.
The Internet Infrastructure HOLDRs (IIH) was also declining. Holding BEA Systems (BEAS) was losing 1.6%. The ETF was down 6 cents, or 1.1%, to $5.49.
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Stern and Sirius
Stern and Sirius
Stern and Sirius are still talking dirty these days. Though, Howard Stern just received another stock bonus from Sirius Satellite Radio -- this one worth $89 million. Stern's racy radio show helped Sirius end 2006 with 6 million subscribers -- 2.5 million more than analysts projected before Stern came aboard with a five-year, $500 million contract.
Stern and Sirius are still talking dirty these days. Though, Howard Stern just received another stock bonus from Sirius Satellite Radio -- this one worth $89 million. Stern's racy radio show helped Sirius end 2006 with 6 million subscribers -- 2.5 million more than analysts projected before Stern came aboard with a five-year, $500 million contract.
Investing Proves Popular in 2007
Investing strategies that counter recession prove popular
Rather what all the 2007 predictions on the ecomony are. We still have a worrisome culture going on. But, let's remember the stories of 2006 that could help us look into more of where or what 2007 could bring us. We are hear to tell you...Forget what economists predict and forget the hype you get from Wall Street. Whether there is a recession or not in 2007 there is likely to be a flight to more-conservative investments among mainstream portfolio savers. You don't have to search too hard around the globe to find a flashpoint, and you can assess for yourself the chances that one of them will ignite next year. Lots of people were hot on commodities in 2006; the hot commodity in 2007 might just be fear. Oh, the No. 1 Personal Finance story this year:
Rather what all the 2007 predictions on the ecomony are. We still have a worrisome culture going on. But, let's remember the stories of 2006 that could help us look into more of where or what 2007 could bring us. We are hear to tell you...Forget what economists predict and forget the hype you get from Wall Street. Whether there is a recession or not in 2007 there is likely to be a flight to more-conservative investments among mainstream portfolio savers. You don't have to search too hard around the globe to find a flashpoint, and you can assess for yourself the chances that one of them will ignite next year. Lots of people were hot on commodities in 2006; the hot commodity in 2007 might just be fear. Oh, the No. 1 Personal Finance story this year:
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
Investment using automatical withdrawal
Investment using automatical withdrawal
You know how you pay your gas bill, your phone bill, each month using electric billing automatically? This saves on not having to write a check address the envelope each month. Well, why not invest the same way?
There's an addictional benefits to investing small amounts say $50 on a regular basis (also called dollar-cost averaging): You may actually invest more than you would if you plunked down a lump sum, and at more opportune times. When you're dollar-cost averaging, you're putting dollars to work no matter what's going on in the market. You have effectively put on blinders against short-term market swings: Whether the market is going up or going down, $100 (or whatever amount you choose to invest) is going into your fund every month no matter what. That's discipline. Would you be able to write a check for $100 if your fund had lost 15% the previous month? Maybe not. But that would mean $100 less working for you when your investments rebounded.
For example, an investor who put in $600 up front in January would have gotten 60 shares at $10 per share. Those shares were worth $12 in June, so her investment was worth $720. If she had dollar-cost averaged her investment, putting in $100 per month, she would have purchased some of her shares on the cheap and wound up with 62.1 shares in June. At $12 per share, she would have had $745.20--$25 more than if she had invested a lump sum at the beginning.
Be careful about using a dollar-cost averaging program if you use a broker or advisor to buy and sell shares, however. If you're paying a front-end load, you'll pay that amount on each and every investment. Perhaps more important, by making smaller purchases you might not be eligible for sales-charge discounts that are frequently available to those who are investing larger sums.
You know how you pay your gas bill, your phone bill, each month using electric billing automatically? This saves on not having to write a check address the envelope each month. Well, why not invest the same way?
There's an addictional benefits to investing small amounts say $50 on a regular basis (also called dollar-cost averaging): You may actually invest more than you would if you plunked down a lump sum, and at more opportune times. When you're dollar-cost averaging, you're putting dollars to work no matter what's going on in the market. You have effectively put on blinders against short-term market swings: Whether the market is going up or going down, $100 (or whatever amount you choose to invest) is going into your fund every month no matter what. That's discipline. Would you be able to write a check for $100 if your fund had lost 15% the previous month? Maybe not. But that would mean $100 less working for you when your investments rebounded.
For example, an investor who put in $600 up front in January would have gotten 60 shares at $10 per share. Those shares were worth $12 in June, so her investment was worth $720. If she had dollar-cost averaged her investment, putting in $100 per month, she would have purchased some of her shares on the cheap and wound up with 62.1 shares in June. At $12 per share, she would have had $745.20--$25 more than if she had invested a lump sum at the beginning.
Be careful about using a dollar-cost averaging program if you use a broker or advisor to buy and sell shares, however. If you're paying a front-end load, you'll pay that amount on each and every investment. Perhaps more important, by making smaller purchases you might not be eligible for sales-charge discounts that are frequently available to those who are investing larger sums.
Shaq is into investing check this out!
You have to check this out! That's right Shaq's selling his pad! And it's only selling for $35,000,000. That's right this beautiful 19,440 square feet, 8 bedroom, 11 full and 3 half baths! Why you want or need more bathrooms than bedrooms we still don't know.
This house was bought through a trust in 2004 for $18,800,000 according to public records. He then tried to turn around and listed the property less than one year later for $32,000,000. A short time later, the house was taken off the market. And then it was put back on the market in late 2006...for $3,000,000 more than before! Yes children, this man thinks he's entitled to a $16,000,000 profit after less than three years of owning the home. We know the real estate has been insane in Miami the last few years, but it has not been this insane. And who knows if Shaq will get is investment or money back. Read the more of the story!
This house was bought through a trust in 2004 for $18,800,000 according to public records. He then tried to turn around and listed the property less than one year later for $32,000,000. A short time later, the house was taken off the market. And then it was put back on the market in late 2006...for $3,000,000 more than before! Yes children, this man thinks he's entitled to a $16,000,000 profit after less than three years of owning the home. We know the real estate has been insane in Miami the last few years, but it has not been this insane. And who knows if Shaq will get is investment or money back. Read the more of the story!
Apple just keeps going!
Apple Just Keeps Going
Apple Computer CEO Steve Jobs on Tuesday made the company's long-awaited jump into the mobile phone business and renamed the company to just "Apple Inc.," reflecting its increasing focus on consumer electronics.
The iPhone, which starts at $499, is controlled by touch, plays music, surfs the Internet and runs the Macintosh computer operating system. Jobs said it will "reinvent" the telecommunications sector and "leapfrog" past the current generation of hard-to-use smart phones.
"Every once in a while a revolutionary product comes along that changes everything," he said during his keynote address at the annual Macworld Conference and Expo. "It's very fortunate if you can work on just one of these in your career. ... Apple's been very fortunate in that it's introduced a few of these."
He said the name change is meant to reflect the fact that Apple has matured from a computer manufacturer to a full-fledged consumer electronics company.
"I didn't sleep a wink last night," he said. "I was so excited."
During his speech, Jobs also unveiled a TV set-top box that allows people to send video from their computers and announced the number of songs sold on its iTunes Music Store has topped 2 billion.
Apple shares jumped more than 6 percent on the announcements, while the stock of rival smart-phone makers plunged.
Jobs demonstrated the iPhone's music capabilities by playing "Lovely Rita, Meter Maid," from the Beatles' "Sergeant Peppers Lonely Hearts Club Band," as the album's psychedelic album art graced a wide-screen monitor.
IPhone uses a patented touch-screen technology Apple is calling "multi-touch."
"We're going to use a pointing device that we're all born with," Jobs said. "It works like magic. ... It's far more accurate than any touch display ever shipped. It ignores unintended touches. It's super smart."
The phone automatically synchs your media -- movies, music, photos -- through Apple's iTunes Music Store. The device also synchs e-mail content, Web bookmarks and nearly any type of digital content stored on your computer.
"It's just like an iPod," Jobs said, "charge and synch."
The phones, which will operate exclusively on AT&T Inc.'s Cingular wireless network, will start shipping in June. A 4-gigabyte model will cost $499, while an 8-gigabyte iPhone will be $599, Jobs said.
IPhone is less than a half-inch thin -- less than almost any phone on the market today. It comes with a 2-megapixel digital camera built into the back, as well as a slot for headphones and a SIM card.
In a demonstration Tuesday, Jobs slid his finger across the display to reveal a home screen and then scrolled through a list of songs.
To make a call, users can tap out the number on an onscreen keypad or scroll through their contacts and dial with a single touch.
Apple is also introducing what it calls "visual voicemail," so users can jump to the most important messages rather than have to listen to all of them in order.
The phone supports Wi-Fi and Bluetooth wireless technology and can detect location from Global Positioning System satellites. It also can send and display e-mail and text messages. Apple is partnering with Yahoo Inc. on Web-based e-mail and Google Inc. on maps.
With a few finger taps, Jobs demonstrated how to pull up a Google Maps site and find the closest Starbucks to the Moscone Center. He then prank-called the cafe and ordered 4,000 lattes to go before quickly hanging up.
"My initial reaction is that this product actually lives up to the extensive hype, and I'm not easily impressed," said Avi Greengart, mobile device analyst for the research firm Current Analysis.
Also Tuesday, Jobs said Apple will begin taking orders immediately for the $299 video box called Apple TV. It will ship next month.
The gadget is designed to bridge computers and television sets so users can more easily watch their downloaded movies on a big screen. A prototype of the gadget was displayed by Jobs in September when Apple announced it would sell TV shows and movies through its iTunes online store.
The product could be as revolutionary to digital movies as Apple's iPod music player was to digital music. Both devices liberate media from the computer, allowing people to enjoy digital files without being chained to a desktop or laptop.
"It's really, really easy to use," Jobs told the crowd at San Francisco's Moscone Center before demonstrating the system with a video clip of "The Good Shepherd." "It's got the processing horsepower to do the kinds of things we like to do."
Apple TV will come with a 40-gigabyte hard drive that stores up to 50 hours of video. It features an Intel Corp. microprocessor and can handle videos, photos and music streamed from up to five computers within the wireless range.
Jobs also said Apple has sold more than 2 billion songs on its popular iTunes music download service, catapulting the company into the top ranks of music sellers worldwide. Apple, which sells 58 songs per second, or 5 million songs a day, sells more songs than Amazon.com and ranks behind only Wal-Mart, Best Buy and Target as a music retailer.
"We couldn't be happier with the growth rate of iTunes," Jobs said.
He said Apple will sell digital movies from Paramount. Apple has partnered with Disney for several months, offering about 100 movies on iTunes. With Paramount's selection, it will have 250 movies available for downloading on the site.
With Tuesday's launches, it remains to be seen whether the leading seller of digital music players can take will find it as easy to jump into the phone business. Apple could use a megahit along the lines of its iconic iPod to divert investors' attention from the stock options-backdating scandal that has tainted its reputation.
The backdating of stock options, which has been widespread among Silicon Valley companies, involves pegging stock options to favorable grant dates in the past to boost the recipients' award. It isn't necessarily illegal, but securities laws require companies to properly disclose the practice in their accounting and settle any charges that may result.
In a December filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Apple said Jobs was aware of, or recommended the selection of, some favorable grant dates but he neither benefited financially from them nor "appreciated the accounting implications."
Apple shares were up $5.71 to $91.18 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $50.16 to $93.16. Meanwhile, shares of other smart-phone makers slid: Treo-maker Palm Inc. dropped 4.7 percent, BlackBerry's Research In Motion Ltd. lost 6.4 percent and Motorola Inc. shed 1 percent.
Apple Computer CEO Steve Jobs on Tuesday made the company's long-awaited jump into the mobile phone business and renamed the company to just "Apple Inc.," reflecting its increasing focus on consumer electronics.
The iPhone, which starts at $499, is controlled by touch, plays music, surfs the Internet and runs the Macintosh computer operating system. Jobs said it will "reinvent" the telecommunications sector and "leapfrog" past the current generation of hard-to-use smart phones.
"Every once in a while a revolutionary product comes along that changes everything," he said during his keynote address at the annual Macworld Conference and Expo. "It's very fortunate if you can work on just one of these in your career. ... Apple's been very fortunate in that it's introduced a few of these."
He said the name change is meant to reflect the fact that Apple has matured from a computer manufacturer to a full-fledged consumer electronics company.
"I didn't sleep a wink last night," he said. "I was so excited."
During his speech, Jobs also unveiled a TV set-top box that allows people to send video from their computers and announced the number of songs sold on its iTunes Music Store has topped 2 billion.
Apple shares jumped more than 6 percent on the announcements, while the stock of rival smart-phone makers plunged.
Jobs demonstrated the iPhone's music capabilities by playing "Lovely Rita, Meter Maid," from the Beatles' "Sergeant Peppers Lonely Hearts Club Band," as the album's psychedelic album art graced a wide-screen monitor.
IPhone uses a patented touch-screen technology Apple is calling "multi-touch."
"We're going to use a pointing device that we're all born with," Jobs said. "It works like magic. ... It's far more accurate than any touch display ever shipped. It ignores unintended touches. It's super smart."
The phone automatically synchs your media -- movies, music, photos -- through Apple's iTunes Music Store. The device also synchs e-mail content, Web bookmarks and nearly any type of digital content stored on your computer.
"It's just like an iPod," Jobs said, "charge and synch."
The phones, which will operate exclusively on AT&T Inc.'s Cingular wireless network, will start shipping in June. A 4-gigabyte model will cost $499, while an 8-gigabyte iPhone will be $599, Jobs said.
IPhone is less than a half-inch thin -- less than almost any phone on the market today. It comes with a 2-megapixel digital camera built into the back, as well as a slot for headphones and a SIM card.
In a demonstration Tuesday, Jobs slid his finger across the display to reveal a home screen and then scrolled through a list of songs.
To make a call, users can tap out the number on an onscreen keypad or scroll through their contacts and dial with a single touch.
Apple is also introducing what it calls "visual voicemail," so users can jump to the most important messages rather than have to listen to all of them in order.
The phone supports Wi-Fi and Bluetooth wireless technology and can detect location from Global Positioning System satellites. It also can send and display e-mail and text messages. Apple is partnering with Yahoo Inc. on Web-based e-mail and Google Inc. on maps.
With a few finger taps, Jobs demonstrated how to pull up a Google Maps site and find the closest Starbucks to the Moscone Center. He then prank-called the cafe and ordered 4,000 lattes to go before quickly hanging up.
"My initial reaction is that this product actually lives up to the extensive hype, and I'm not easily impressed," said Avi Greengart, mobile device analyst for the research firm Current Analysis.
Also Tuesday, Jobs said Apple will begin taking orders immediately for the $299 video box called Apple TV. It will ship next month.
The gadget is designed to bridge computers and television sets so users can more easily watch their downloaded movies on a big screen. A prototype of the gadget was displayed by Jobs in September when Apple announced it would sell TV shows and movies through its iTunes online store.
The product could be as revolutionary to digital movies as Apple's iPod music player was to digital music. Both devices liberate media from the computer, allowing people to enjoy digital files without being chained to a desktop or laptop.
"It's really, really easy to use," Jobs told the crowd at San Francisco's Moscone Center before demonstrating the system with a video clip of "The Good Shepherd." "It's got the processing horsepower to do the kinds of things we like to do."
Apple TV will come with a 40-gigabyte hard drive that stores up to 50 hours of video. It features an Intel Corp. microprocessor and can handle videos, photos and music streamed from up to five computers within the wireless range.
Jobs also said Apple has sold more than 2 billion songs on its popular iTunes music download service, catapulting the company into the top ranks of music sellers worldwide. Apple, which sells 58 songs per second, or 5 million songs a day, sells more songs than Amazon.com and ranks behind only Wal-Mart, Best Buy and Target as a music retailer.
"We couldn't be happier with the growth rate of iTunes," Jobs said.
He said Apple will sell digital movies from Paramount. Apple has partnered with Disney for several months, offering about 100 movies on iTunes. With Paramount's selection, it will have 250 movies available for downloading on the site.
With Tuesday's launches, it remains to be seen whether the leading seller of digital music players can take will find it as easy to jump into the phone business. Apple could use a megahit along the lines of its iconic iPod to divert investors' attention from the stock options-backdating scandal that has tainted its reputation.
The backdating of stock options, which has been widespread among Silicon Valley companies, involves pegging stock options to favorable grant dates in the past to boost the recipients' award. It isn't necessarily illegal, but securities laws require companies to properly disclose the practice in their accounting and settle any charges that may result.
In a December filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Apple said Jobs was aware of, or recommended the selection of, some favorable grant dates but he neither benefited financially from them nor "appreciated the accounting implications."
Apple shares were up $5.71 to $91.18 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $50.16 to $93.16. Meanwhile, shares of other smart-phone makers slid: Treo-maker Palm Inc. dropped 4.7 percent, BlackBerry's Research In Motion Ltd. lost 6.4 percent and Motorola Inc. shed 1 percent.
Monday, January 08, 2007
GPS for 2007
GPS units for 2007
What will be next with all this tracking of the GPS for 2007.
This holiday and even into the 2007 GPS technology is on the radar for lots of people, teens, and even families. Noting that GPS sales were up 66% last year and we think they will continue to rise. Check out what some of the leading GPS companies are offering these days:
Garmin - Garmin we believe is on top of the GPS game and now has just released the Astro Dog Tracking System. This sleek design is targeting hunters which is a handheld GPS unit combining a 5-inch antenna and a dog collar. This is allowing dog owners to track their dogs' anywhere and everywhere. So no matter if your duck hunting or racoon hunting you will know where you dog is at all times. While this is first targeted at hunters the dog industry and dog lovers could be a hot idea this upcoming year. Garmin is stating it should be ready in June 2007 and will come out costing right around $649.
Garmin also released the Nuvi 680 ($999), and this is the top of the line GPS unit. This GPS unit is first ever to have MSN Direct Service providing up-to-the-minute traffic, weather, real-time gas prices, and movie times. The Garmin Nuvi 580 provides the services, too, for $799.
Magellan - This company is coming out with the first pocket-size Crossover GPS. This new Crossover GPS unit is handing and can be used for just about anything. Things such as hiking, on-foot outdoor travels, in-car navigation and etc. The Crossover GPS contains topographical maps for all 50 states, Canada, Puerto Rico, and Mexico and retails for $549.
TomTom - They products continue to drop as now the TomTom One is now currently only $399.
What will be next with all this tracking of the GPS for 2007.
This holiday and even into the 2007 GPS technology is on the radar for lots of people, teens, and even families. Noting that GPS sales were up 66% last year and we think they will continue to rise. Check out what some of the leading GPS companies are offering these days:
Garmin - Garmin we believe is on top of the GPS game and now has just released the Astro Dog Tracking System. This sleek design is targeting hunters which is a handheld GPS unit combining a 5-inch antenna and a dog collar. This is allowing dog owners to track their dogs' anywhere and everywhere. So no matter if your duck hunting or racoon hunting you will know where you dog is at all times. While this is first targeted at hunters the dog industry and dog lovers could be a hot idea this upcoming year. Garmin is stating it should be ready in June 2007 and will come out costing right around $649.
Garmin also released the Nuvi 680 ($999), and this is the top of the line GPS unit. This GPS unit is first ever to have MSN Direct Service providing up-to-the-minute traffic, weather, real-time gas prices, and movie times. The Garmin Nuvi 580 provides the services, too, for $799.
Magellan - This company is coming out with the first pocket-size Crossover GPS. This new Crossover GPS unit is handing and can be used for just about anything. Things such as hiking, on-foot outdoor travels, in-car navigation and etc. The Crossover GPS contains topographical maps for all 50 states, Canada, Puerto Rico, and Mexico and retails for $549.
TomTom - They products continue to drop as now the TomTom One is now currently only $399.
The 10 Hottest-Selling Mutual Funds to be looking at this 2007
The 10 Hottest-Selling Mutual Funds to be looking at this 2007
American Funds Growth Fund of America (AGTHX)
American Funds Capital World Growth & Income (CWGIX)
American Funds Capital Income Builder (CAIBX)
American Funds EuroPacific Growth (AEPGX)
Dodge & Cox International Stock (DODFX)
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX)
Fidelity Diversified International (FDIVX)
PHarbor Bond (HABDX)
American Funds Fundamental Investors (ANCFX)
Davis New York Venture (NYVTX)
Selected American (SLADX).
American Funds Growth Fund of America (AGTHX)
American Funds Capital World Growth & Income (CWGIX)
American Funds Capital Income Builder (CAIBX)
American Funds EuroPacific Growth (AEPGX)
Dodge & Cox International Stock (DODFX)
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX)
Fidelity Diversified International (FDIVX)
PHarbor Bond (HABDX)
American Funds Fundamental Investors (ANCFX)
Davis New York Venture (NYVTX)
Selected American (SLADX).
Monday's Stock ideas
Check out the stock rumors...10 Rumors That Could Rock Stocks
Here another 7 stocks ideas for today. Check them out here.
The only stock they both have up is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL - News). AAPL's PowerRating is 5. Apple will announce that Steve Jobs will be taking a leave of absence from the company.
Here another 7 stocks ideas for today. Check them out here.
The only stock they both have up is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL - News). AAPL's PowerRating is 5. Apple will announce that Steve Jobs will be taking a leave of absence from the company.
In a recent polls at thestreet.com
In a recent poll at thestreet.com they asked over 2500 people three simple questions that everyone in today's market wants to know.
1. What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading?
Bullish 44.85%
Bearish 26.44%
Neutral 28.7%
2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week?
The top several sectors were as followed:
Integrated Oil 8.86%
Biotechnology 8.51%
Energy Equipment & Services 7.2%
Airlines 4.43%
Computers and Peripherals 6.69%
Energy Equipment & Services 7.2%
Internet, Software Services 6.92%
Investment Bankers and Brokers 5.85%
Pharmaceuticals 5.5%
Precious Metals 5.5%
3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week?
Integrated Oil 16.58%
Homebuilding 13.89%
Precious Metals 11.52%
Energy Equipment & Services 10.09%
1. What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading?
Bullish 44.85%
Bearish 26.44%
Neutral 28.7%
2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week?
The top several sectors were as followed:
Integrated Oil 8.86%
Biotechnology 8.51%
Energy Equipment & Services 7.2%
Airlines 4.43%
Computers and Peripherals 6.69%
Energy Equipment & Services 7.2%
Internet, Software Services 6.92%
Investment Bankers and Brokers 5.85%
Pharmaceuticals 5.5%
Precious Metals 5.5%
3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week?
Integrated Oil 16.58%
Homebuilding 13.89%
Precious Metals 11.52%
Energy Equipment & Services 10.09%
Herbalife (HLF)
After last weeks ending of Herbalife (HLF) stock getting hammered by what was a piece of news that's not even all bad compared to what other companies have gone through as of lately. Though, Herbalife (HLF) was amont the NYSE's biggerst losers and not we are not talking about the Biggest Loser on NBC sorry! We are talking about stock market losers of a stock that lost 20% due to a cut in sales for 2007.
For the recently ended fourth quarter, Herbalife said it expects sales of $482.7 million to $484.7 million, in line with Thomson First Call's average analyst estimate of $488.3 million. The company expects earnings to be within its previously announced forecast of 52 cents to 55 cents a share.
Looking ahead, Herbalife lowered its 2007 sales growth forecast because of slower-than-expected growth in Mexico. The company expects sales to rise 6% to 10%, compared with an earlier projection of 10% to 15%. Herbalife still expects earnings of $2.40 to $2.47 a share for the year. Shares were trading down $7.95 to $31.35.
Is Herbalife still a buy? Well, that's the question, but we would like to bring this up to at least look into this stock alittle deeper.
We feel that here are some facts that make it still an interesting stock. The company Herbalife (HLF) is reaffirming its previous guidance of $2.40 to $2.47 in earnings per share. However, those results would reflect sales growth of between 6% and 10%, combined with improved operating margins and a lower tax rate. The company previously expected a 10% to 15% increase in sales.
Looking at current sales trends, the company predicts slower sales growth in Mexico than it previously estimated. Those results should be partially offset by sales growth in the U.S. and several other countries, the company says.
Herbalife (HLF) expects to earn 50 cents to 55 cents a share in the first quarter of 2007, excluding expenses related to its so-called realignment for growth initiative. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were expecting the company to earn 58 cents a share in the quarter.
What do you think? Buy? Sell? Hold? Keep looking for a different stock?
For the recently ended fourth quarter, Herbalife said it expects sales of $482.7 million to $484.7 million, in line with Thomson First Call's average analyst estimate of $488.3 million. The company expects earnings to be within its previously announced forecast of 52 cents to 55 cents a share.
Looking ahead, Herbalife lowered its 2007 sales growth forecast because of slower-than-expected growth in Mexico. The company expects sales to rise 6% to 10%, compared with an earlier projection of 10% to 15%. Herbalife still expects earnings of $2.40 to $2.47 a share for the year. Shares were trading down $7.95 to $31.35.
Is Herbalife still a buy? Well, that's the question, but we would like to bring this up to at least look into this stock alittle deeper.
We feel that here are some facts that make it still an interesting stock. The company Herbalife (HLF) is reaffirming its previous guidance of $2.40 to $2.47 in earnings per share. However, those results would reflect sales growth of between 6% and 10%, combined with improved operating margins and a lower tax rate. The company previously expected a 10% to 15% increase in sales.
Looking at current sales trends, the company predicts slower sales growth in Mexico than it previously estimated. Those results should be partially offset by sales growth in the U.S. and several other countries, the company says.
Herbalife (HLF) expects to earn 50 cents to 55 cents a share in the first quarter of 2007, excluding expenses related to its so-called realignment for growth initiative. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were expecting the company to earn 58 cents a share in the quarter.
What do you think? Buy? Sell? Hold? Keep looking for a different stock?
Tuesday, January 02, 2007
Markets Closed to Honor Gerald Ford
U.S. Stock Markets Are Closed Today for National Day of Mourning for Gerald Ford
NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stock markets are closed today to observe the national day of mourning for former President Gerald Ford.
The first trading week of the year may be a short one, but it may help determine whether the stock market's record-breaking run will continue or melt down in 2007.
The three days will be filled with data on employment, the manufacturing and service sectors, and sales figures from retailers and automakers. These will provide clues to Wall Street's big question: Is economic growth still cooling, or starting to heat up?
During the last trading week of 2006, despite thin holiday trading volumes, the Dow Jones industrial average rose above 12,500 for the first time after a promising report on new home sales suggested the economy may be turning around. If the first week of January brings good news, the Dow could hurtle further into record territory, extending its fourth-quarter rally.
Hearty economic growth may not line investors' pockets, however, if it leads the Federal Reserve to believe Americans can withstand an interest rate hike. Such a move by policy makers has the potential to stop the market's rally because of fears that higher rates will crimp consumer spending and deal a further blow to the housing market by making mortgages harder to pay off.
ECONOMIC DATA
The first trading day of 2007 will kick off with the Insitute for Supply Management's December report on the manufacturing sector -- an area of the economy that cooled in 2006 due to a slowing housing market and struggling automakers, but that didn't faze the stock market.
The market expects the ISM's manufacturing index to come in at 50, indicating neither expansion nor contraction. That's above November's reading of 49.5; that was the first time the index showed contraction in nearly four years.
Investors will also be reading the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes from its meeting on Dec. 12, when the policy makers decided to keep interest rates unchanged. The markets widely believe the Fed will leave the benchmark rate steady again at 5.25 percent, as it's done since August, when it meets Jan. 18. But expectations of a hike later in the year could rise if the minutes released Wednesday express heightened optimism about growth and concern about inflation.
Wednesday will also bring November data on construction spending and factory orders, as well as December auto sales figures. The market expects 2007 to be the year that Toyota Motor Corp. usurps General Motors Corp.'s title as the world's largest automaker.
On Thursday, the country's largest retailers announce their sales figures for December -- the biggest shopping month of the year, and a bellwether for consumer spending. Investors may be in for a disappointment; retail analysts brought their holiday predictions down a notch after Christmas, saying that while online and luxury item sales surged, most retailers saw shoppers spending conservatively.
The ISM will also release its December report on the service sector on Thursday. The index is expected to come in at 57.0, slightly below November's reading of 58.9. The service sector stayed strong relative to the manufacturing sector in 2006, suggesting that economic weakness is fairly isolated to the housing- and auto-related industries.
The Labor Department caps the week with its reports on December nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. The market expects the data Friday to show payrolls rose by 110,000 and unemployment held at 4.5 percent. The U.S. jobs picture has remained fairly stable in the face of an economic slowdown, which has helped buoy the stock market's confidence in Americans' spending power.
EARNINGS
After taking a holiday vacation last week from releasing financial results, major corporate earnings will start trickling in again on Thursday.
Wall Street expects Constellation Brands Inc., the world's largest wine maker, to report earnings Thursday of 60 cents a share for its fiscal third quarter. Constellation Brands closed at $28.98 on Friday, after hitting a 52-week high of $29.14 earlier in the session. Its shares hit a 52-week low of $23.32 in April.
Meanwhile, analysts predict herbicide and biotech seed producer Monsanto Co. will report earnings Thursday of 58 cents a share for its fiscal first quarter. The maker of herbicide RoundUp closed at $52.53 on Friday, at the upper end of its 52-week range of $37.91 to $53.49.
NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stock markets are closed today to observe the national day of mourning for former President Gerald Ford.
The first trading week of the year may be a short one, but it may help determine whether the stock market's record-breaking run will continue or melt down in 2007.
The three days will be filled with data on employment, the manufacturing and service sectors, and sales figures from retailers and automakers. These will provide clues to Wall Street's big question: Is economic growth still cooling, or starting to heat up?
During the last trading week of 2006, despite thin holiday trading volumes, the Dow Jones industrial average rose above 12,500 for the first time after a promising report on new home sales suggested the economy may be turning around. If the first week of January brings good news, the Dow could hurtle further into record territory, extending its fourth-quarter rally.
Hearty economic growth may not line investors' pockets, however, if it leads the Federal Reserve to believe Americans can withstand an interest rate hike. Such a move by policy makers has the potential to stop the market's rally because of fears that higher rates will crimp consumer spending and deal a further blow to the housing market by making mortgages harder to pay off.
ECONOMIC DATA
The first trading day of 2007 will kick off with the Insitute for Supply Management's December report on the manufacturing sector -- an area of the economy that cooled in 2006 due to a slowing housing market and struggling automakers, but that didn't faze the stock market.
The market expects the ISM's manufacturing index to come in at 50, indicating neither expansion nor contraction. That's above November's reading of 49.5; that was the first time the index showed contraction in nearly four years.
Investors will also be reading the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes from its meeting on Dec. 12, when the policy makers decided to keep interest rates unchanged. The markets widely believe the Fed will leave the benchmark rate steady again at 5.25 percent, as it's done since August, when it meets Jan. 18. But expectations of a hike later in the year could rise if the minutes released Wednesday express heightened optimism about growth and concern about inflation.
Wednesday will also bring November data on construction spending and factory orders, as well as December auto sales figures. The market expects 2007 to be the year that Toyota Motor Corp. usurps General Motors Corp.'s title as the world's largest automaker.
On Thursday, the country's largest retailers announce their sales figures for December -- the biggest shopping month of the year, and a bellwether for consumer spending. Investors may be in for a disappointment; retail analysts brought their holiday predictions down a notch after Christmas, saying that while online and luxury item sales surged, most retailers saw shoppers spending conservatively.
The ISM will also release its December report on the service sector on Thursday. The index is expected to come in at 57.0, slightly below November's reading of 58.9. The service sector stayed strong relative to the manufacturing sector in 2006, suggesting that economic weakness is fairly isolated to the housing- and auto-related industries.
The Labor Department caps the week with its reports on December nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. The market expects the data Friday to show payrolls rose by 110,000 and unemployment held at 4.5 percent. The U.S. jobs picture has remained fairly stable in the face of an economic slowdown, which has helped buoy the stock market's confidence in Americans' spending power.
EARNINGS
After taking a holiday vacation last week from releasing financial results, major corporate earnings will start trickling in again on Thursday.
Wall Street expects Constellation Brands Inc., the world's largest wine maker, to report earnings Thursday of 60 cents a share for its fiscal third quarter. Constellation Brands closed at $28.98 on Friday, after hitting a 52-week high of $29.14 earlier in the session. Its shares hit a 52-week low of $23.32 in April.
Meanwhile, analysts predict herbicide and biotech seed producer Monsanto Co. will report earnings Thursday of 58 cents a share for its fiscal first quarter. The maker of herbicide RoundUp closed at $52.53 on Friday, at the upper end of its 52-week range of $37.91 to $53.49.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Garmin (GRMN)
Garmin (GRMN) is by far the biggest player in the portable navigation device (PND) market - they have around 50% market share. A dominant position does not necessarily make for a good stock, however. Apparently Garmin's GPS devices are expected to be a hot seller for Christmas this year - not that I was aware people want GPS devices for Christmas - but will Garmin stock help add a little green to the tree? I doubt it because the stock is priced with outrageous expectations from analysts and investors. The risks are as follows:
-Selling prices will be under pressure as PNDs become increasingly commoditized, and this will significantly hurt the bottom line. Simply put, Garmin is getting more and more competition, and the effect is that gross margins have been falling constantly over the past few years. Once upon a time they were 57.7%, last quarter they were 48.7%... I consider this to be an irreversible trend the company will need to deal with, yet analyst models assume no further decline in selling prices (and hence gross margins). This is the opposite of what happens with technology, it gets cheaper over time - think about computers.
-Garmin has no recurring revenues. They only make money upon the purchase of their product, not beyond that. If you want a comparable company, think about Dell. Both make money on the purchase, and need their product to break/become useless before the customer buys another one. This is the exact opposite of what you want in a company. Other tech stocks have recurring revenues (think Apple's iTunes, or needing Research in Motion to give your Blackberry service), but Garmin only profits at the point of sale. This will be a significant problem for growing revenues and profits in the future.
-Valuation. GRMN is trading for 40x trailing annual free cash flow, or more than twice the expected growth rate from analysts (which I expect to be higher than will materialize). According to the DCF model, Garmin needs to grow FCF at 20% annually over the next 5 years, and still be able to justify a 30x FCF multiple to be even fairly valued (that means no upside from the current price of $50). I see little to no chance of such a scenario occurring, especially considering Point 1 about declining pricing power leading to lower selling prices.
Garmin is not a bad company. They are very good at what they do. The stock is simply too overhyped thanks to the "it has a cool gadget, the stock must be great" groupthink. I expect to see GRMN head toward $40, unless the entire premium gets wiped out and it goes to the $25-30 fair value range. Either way, I don't think its the kind of good, undervalued stock you want to be in.
One more reason...Garmin's latest holiday commercial now airing on various networks throughout North America.
-Selling prices will be under pressure as PNDs become increasingly commoditized, and this will significantly hurt the bottom line. Simply put, Garmin is getting more and more competition, and the effect is that gross margins have been falling constantly over the past few years. Once upon a time they were 57.7%, last quarter they were 48.7%... I consider this to be an irreversible trend the company will need to deal with, yet analyst models assume no further decline in selling prices (and hence gross margins). This is the opposite of what happens with technology, it gets cheaper over time - think about computers.
-Garmin has no recurring revenues. They only make money upon the purchase of their product, not beyond that. If you want a comparable company, think about Dell. Both make money on the purchase, and need their product to break/become useless before the customer buys another one. This is the exact opposite of what you want in a company. Other tech stocks have recurring revenues (think Apple's iTunes, or needing Research in Motion to give your Blackberry service), but Garmin only profits at the point of sale. This will be a significant problem for growing revenues and profits in the future.
-Valuation. GRMN is trading for 40x trailing annual free cash flow, or more than twice the expected growth rate from analysts (which I expect to be higher than will materialize). According to the DCF model, Garmin needs to grow FCF at 20% annually over the next 5 years, and still be able to justify a 30x FCF multiple to be even fairly valued (that means no upside from the current price of $50). I see little to no chance of such a scenario occurring, especially considering Point 1 about declining pricing power leading to lower selling prices.
Garmin is not a bad company. They are very good at what they do. The stock is simply too overhyped thanks to the "it has a cool gadget, the stock must be great" groupthink. I expect to see GRMN head toward $40, unless the entire premium gets wiped out and it goes to the $25-30 fair value range. Either way, I don't think its the kind of good, undervalued stock you want to be in.
One more reason...Garmin's latest holiday commercial now airing on various networks throughout North America.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Akamai (AKAM)
Akamai (AKAM) is a company that provides content delivery network (cdn) services to enable websites to transmit data faster. Akamai was founded by an MIT professor and several of his grad students, went public during the tech bubble, and went from a high of $345 down to a low of 56 cents... quite a roller coaster. This year the stock is up 160%, having settled at $55 today.
Akamai's business performance is certainly been impressive. They have managed to grow revenues over the last several years at a clip of greater than 30%, and the bottom line growth has shown that they have excellent scale of their business model. My foremost concern with AKAM is that the analyst's consensus growth target for the next 5 years is 32%, meaning that Akamai will quadruple current income by the end of 2011. Possible? Maybe. Probable? No.
A worrisome indicator that Akamai might be slipping is Return on Capital (RoIC) numbers, which suggest that the company is losing something in terms of effectiveness - perhaps because Akamai is facing decent competition now, with the potential for much more in the future. Akamai relies on a proprietary algorithm (think Google for data transmission) which will lose protection in 2018, but there is no guarantee that some other person or company won't come along with a better method of execution. I think the operating risks for Akamai are significant, and the economic moat is narrow to non-existent. Few technology companies live up to expectations, not because they aren't good companies, but because there is a certain irrationality surrounding them... which brings us to the valuation of AKAM.
If Akamai grows its bottom line at the analyst-expected rate of 32% per annum, then the implied free cash flow exit multiple is 42x (AKAM currently trades at 90x ttm FCF), using a 12% discount factor and the current price of $55. Akamai needs to substantially exceed those targets in order to have any upside on the valuation, however, so keep in mind what the company is up against. For more conservative valuation purposes, I am going to assume they have some earnings misses, grow the bottom line around 25% per year (still exceptionally high), and justify and end FCF multiple of 30x. That scenario gives AKAM a fair value of $30/share, although leaving a sufficient margin of safety suggests holding off unless AKAM sees the low $20s.
I realize that alot of technology bulls will say that you can't value a firm like Akamai using old-economy DCF models, but following the cash eliminates much of the risk of buying stocks that do nothing but burn money and destroy value. In terms of industry and price, AKAM is clearly outside of my comfort level. I advise anyone considering investing in it to do their due diligence, and consider a research report released by Piper Jaffray, where they say that although the shares likely have some upside, they appear to be fully valued, if not overvalued... and that was written when AKAM was at $49.
Akamai's business performance is certainly been impressive. They have managed to grow revenues over the last several years at a clip of greater than 30%, and the bottom line growth has shown that they have excellent scale of their business model. My foremost concern with AKAM is that the analyst's consensus growth target for the next 5 years is 32%, meaning that Akamai will quadruple current income by the end of 2011. Possible? Maybe. Probable? No.
A worrisome indicator that Akamai might be slipping is Return on Capital (RoIC) numbers, which suggest that the company is losing something in terms of effectiveness - perhaps because Akamai is facing decent competition now, with the potential for much more in the future. Akamai relies on a proprietary algorithm (think Google for data transmission) which will lose protection in 2018, but there is no guarantee that some other person or company won't come along with a better method of execution. I think the operating risks for Akamai are significant, and the economic moat is narrow to non-existent. Few technology companies live up to expectations, not because they aren't good companies, but because there is a certain irrationality surrounding them... which brings us to the valuation of AKAM.
If Akamai grows its bottom line at the analyst-expected rate of 32% per annum, then the implied free cash flow exit multiple is 42x (AKAM currently trades at 90x ttm FCF), using a 12% discount factor and the current price of $55. Akamai needs to substantially exceed those targets in order to have any upside on the valuation, however, so keep in mind what the company is up against. For more conservative valuation purposes, I am going to assume they have some earnings misses, grow the bottom line around 25% per year (still exceptionally high), and justify and end FCF multiple of 30x. That scenario gives AKAM a fair value of $30/share, although leaving a sufficient margin of safety suggests holding off unless AKAM sees the low $20s.
I realize that alot of technology bulls will say that you can't value a firm like Akamai using old-economy DCF models, but following the cash eliminates much of the risk of buying stocks that do nothing but burn money and destroy value. In terms of industry and price, AKAM is clearly outside of my comfort level. I advise anyone considering investing in it to do their due diligence, and consider a research report released by Piper Jaffray, where they say that although the shares likely have some upside, they appear to be fully valued, if not overvalued... and that was written when AKAM was at $49.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Sun Microsystems release Java Standard Edition 6
Sun Microsystems has released the latest version of their Java development kit. This Java kit will make it easier for developers to mix JavaJava technology with other languages such as PHP, Python, Ruby and JavaScript. Sun's idea was to solve the developers problem of what is said "developers wanted to use other languages with the java. Until now the developers were not able to create this great mix application. Sun has created a collection of scripting engines on its Web site, and Java SE 6 includes a preconfigured version of Mozilla's open-source Rhino JavaScript engine.
"Java SE 6 is an extremely significant release for us," said Jean Elliott, Sun's senior director of Java platform product marketing. She drew particular attention to community participation in the platform's development. For the first time, hundreds of non-Sun developers had some input into the Java SE development process, beginning in September 2004 as Sun released Java SE 5.
Over two years in the making, Sun Microsystems is due to release the latest version of its Java Platform Standard Edition (Java SE) software Monday, placing particular emphasis on the application development platform's support for other scripting languages.
Java SE 6 comes with support for Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system, the business release of which made its debut late last month.
"Java SE 6 is an extremely significant release for us," said Jean Elliott, Sun's senior director of Java platform product marketing. She drew particular attention to community participation in the platform's development. For the first time, hundreds of non-Sun developers had some input into the Java SE development process, beginning in September 2004 as Sun released Java SE 5.
Over two years in the making, Sun Microsystems is due to release the latest version of its Java Platform Standard Edition (Java SE) software Monday, placing particular emphasis on the application development platform's support for other scripting languages.
Java SE 6 comes with support for Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system, the business release of which made its debut late last month.
Friday, December 08, 2006
Yahoo's Panama Gives Semel Chance to Please Investors
By Jonathan Thaw
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Yahoo! Inc. Chief Executive Officer Terry Semel, having failed to appease investors with a management reshuffle, may get a second chance next year with new ad software designed to regain ground lost to Google Inc.
Known as Project Panama, the program is slated to be fully operational by March, three months behind schedule. The software, which marketers are starting to use, emulates Google and may help Yahoo generate more revenue from each Internet search.
Yahoo is releasing the new technology to spur sales and reverse a 32 percent slide in its stock price this year. As part of that effort, Semel this week reorganized Yahoo into three units and promoted Chief Financial Officer Susan Decker to oversee ad sales. Yahoo shares fell on concern that the changes may not be enough, prompting investors to look to Panama.
``While this technology might not allow Yahoo to overtake Google, it may help narrow the gap,'' said Scott Kessler, an analyst at Standard & Poor's in New York.
Panama improves the way Sunnyvale, California-based Yahoo displays Internet search ads and may generate an additional $115 million of sales in the second half of next year, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Justin Post said in a Nov. 30 note to investors.
Shares of Yahoo fell 23 cents to $26.63 at 4 p.m. in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading.
Mark Cuban Buys read complete article...
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
A Great List of ETF 's
Standard Index Funds
QQQQ - NDX 100
SPY - SP500
DIA - Dow Jones Industrials
MDY - SP Mid Cap 400
IWM - Russell 2000
Short/Bear Funds (Allows you to short in IRA/401K accounts)
PSQ - Short QQQ Inverse of the NASDAQ-100
SH - Short S&P500 Inverse of the S&P 500
DOG - Short Dow30 Inverse of the DJIA
MYY - Short MidCap400 Inverse of the S&P Mid Cap 400
2x Margin Built In (Allows you to leverage IRA/401K)
QLD - Double the NASDAQ-100
SSO - Double the S&P 500
DDM - Double the DJIA
MVV - Double the S&P MidCap 400
QID - Double the inverse of the NASDAQ-100
SDS - Double the inverse of the S&P 500
DXD - Double the inverse of the DJIA
MZZ - Double the inverse of the S&P MidCap 400
Countries (Allows you to invest in other economies)
EWJ - Japan
EWT - Taiwan
EWH - Hong Kong
EWB - Brazil
EWU - UK
EWW - Mexico
EWM - Malaysia
EWS - Singapore
EWC - Canada
EWY - South Korea
EWP - Spain
EWA - Australia
EWP - Pacific ex. Japan
EWG - Germany
EWI - Italy
EWL - Switzerland
EWQ - France
EWD - Sweden
EWK - Belgium
EWO - Austria
EWN - Netherlands
Stock Market Sector Funds (Sector Baskets)
OIH - Oil Services Sector
XLE - Oil Sector
XLI - Industrial Sector
IGE - Natural Resources Sector
IYR - US Real Estate Sector
XLU - Utility Sector
SMH - Semiconductor Sector
XLF - Financial Sector
RTH - Retail Sector
TTH - Telecom Sector
WMH - Wireless Sector
SWH - Software Sector
XLK - Technology Sector
HHH - Internet Sector
XLB - Materials Sector
XLY - Consumer Discretionary Sector
PPH - Pharmaceuticals Sector
XLV - Health Care Sector
IGN - Networking Sector
BBH - Biotech Sector
Bond Funds
SHY - 1-3 yr treasury bond
IEF - 7-10 yr treasury bond
TLT - 20+ yr treasury bond
LQD - corporate bond
Commodities
GLD - Gold
SLV - Silver
USO - Oil
Currencies
FXA - Rydex CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust
ETF
FXB - Rydex CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling
ETF
FXC - Rydex CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust ETF
FXE - Euro Currency Trust ETF
FXF - Rydex CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust ETF
FXM - Mexican Peso Trust ETF
FXS - Rydex CurrencyShares Swedish Krona Trust ETF
More information...
QQQQ - NDX 100
SPY - SP500
DIA - Dow Jones Industrials
MDY - SP Mid Cap 400
IWM - Russell 2000
Short/Bear Funds (Allows you to short in IRA/401K accounts)
PSQ - Short QQQ Inverse of the NASDAQ-100
SH - Short S&P500 Inverse of the S&P 500
DOG - Short Dow30 Inverse of the DJIA
MYY - Short MidCap400 Inverse of the S&P Mid Cap 400
2x Margin Built In (Allows you to leverage IRA/401K)
QLD - Double the NASDAQ-100
SSO - Double the S&P 500
DDM - Double the DJIA
MVV - Double the S&P MidCap 400
QID - Double the inverse of the NASDAQ-100
SDS - Double the inverse of the S&P 500
DXD - Double the inverse of the DJIA
MZZ - Double the inverse of the S&P MidCap 400
Countries (Allows you to invest in other economies)
EWJ - Japan
EWT - Taiwan
EWH - Hong Kong
EWB - Brazil
EWU - UK
EWW - Mexico
EWM - Malaysia
EWS - Singapore
EWC - Canada
EWY - South Korea
EWP - Spain
EWA - Australia
EWP - Pacific ex. Japan
EWG - Germany
EWI - Italy
EWL - Switzerland
EWQ - France
EWD - Sweden
EWK - Belgium
EWO - Austria
EWN - Netherlands
Stock Market Sector Funds (Sector Baskets)
OIH - Oil Services Sector
XLE - Oil Sector
XLI - Industrial Sector
IGE - Natural Resources Sector
IYR - US Real Estate Sector
XLU - Utility Sector
SMH - Semiconductor Sector
XLF - Financial Sector
RTH - Retail Sector
TTH - Telecom Sector
WMH - Wireless Sector
SWH - Software Sector
XLK - Technology Sector
HHH - Internet Sector
XLB - Materials Sector
XLY - Consumer Discretionary Sector
PPH - Pharmaceuticals Sector
XLV - Health Care Sector
IGN - Networking Sector
BBH - Biotech Sector
Bond Funds
SHY - 1-3 yr treasury bond
IEF - 7-10 yr treasury bond
TLT - 20+ yr treasury bond
LQD - corporate bond
Commodities
GLD - Gold
SLV - Silver
USO - Oil
Currencies
FXA - Rydex CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust
ETF
FXB - Rydex CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling
ETF
FXC - Rydex CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust ETF
FXE - Euro Currency Trust ETF
FXF - Rydex CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust ETF
FXM - Mexican Peso Trust ETF
FXS - Rydex CurrencyShares Swedish Krona Trust ETF
More information...
Monday, December 04, 2006
Omnivision (OVTI) is a fabless semiconductor company that focuses on designing imaging chips for (mainly) consumer electronics.
Omnivision (OVTI) is a fabless semiconductor company that focuses on designing imaging chips for (mainly) consumer electronics.
In the words of the company:
Its image-sensing devices, referred under the name CameraChips, are used to capture an image and used in various commercial and consumer mass-market applications. The CameraChips are used in various consumer applications, such as camera cell phones, digital still and video cameras, personal computer camera applications, and interactive video and digital toy cameras. In addition, CameraChips are integrated into security and surveillance products and analog toy cameras, automotive products, and medical imaging devices. Further, it designs and develops software drivers for various computer operating systems, as well as embedded operating systems.
OVTI is trading near $13.60 and has a market cap around $750 million, thanks to Friday's 16% plunge off an earnings report. Part of the reason attributed to the drop was fears about pricing pressures hurting margins. Contracting margins are pretty much implied whenever you talk about semis, and although OVTI has experienced that over the last several years earnings and cash flow have continued to grow at a rapid clip, with adjusted net income doubling and adjusted free cash flow tripling in the last three and a half years. Based off market cap., OVTI trades for 8.5x trailing earnings, and 8x trailing free cash flow. But market cap only tells half the story; as Omnivision has over $380 million in net cash, or about $7 per share - this means you are getting nearly half of your share price in cash. Now when you consider that Omnivision actually has an enterprise value of $360 million, the stock is actually trading for under 5x earnings and under 4x free cash flow... both of those numbers are phenomenal.
Just because OVTI appears dirt cheap doesn't mean its a bad company, on the contrary, it has generated nearly $100 million in annual free cash flow over the last few years. Omnivision also has developed a new chip that changes the way autofocusing is processed, which allows for much quicker and clearer imaging. The all-digital process has the potential to eliminate any sort of manual focusing traditionally done with cameras, and I'm fairly sure that somewhere in my research I read that Omnivision has patentied the technology, which should be ready for commercial use within a few quarters. The company's expansion in security and medical imaging is also offering growth opportunities beyond the consumer electronics market of cameraphones and video recorders, so there is plenty of potential growth on top of that excellent financial footing.
Running a quick revenue and earnings projection concludes that top line growth of 15% over the next 5 years is manageable, with net income growing about 17% over that time period. The lastest consensus estimate from Wall Street was 20%, but I think you are going to see some waffling because of the quarterly disappointment... and I like to be conservative.
According to the valuation model, OVTI is priced for no free cash flow growth over the next five years, and has a terminal valuation of 5x FCF. Recall that OVTI is trading for just under 8x FCF right now... which I believe is extremely cheap in itself. But anyways, from the reverse engineering standpoint, OVTI is priced as being a company that will see no more growth, and will end up being valued at a 20% free cash flow yield. Think those pricing assumptions give you some margin of safety?
On the more realistic (but still conservative) side of pricing, lets assume that Omnivision manages to grow free cash flow at about 10% per year, or about 60% of what is forecast by a quick growth projection (I choose 60% because that leaves a 20% margin of safety and 20% for "excess return"). At 10% growth, and an end cash flow yield of about 15% (which matches the steep 15% discount rate I am applying to account for riskiness), OVTI appears to be an $18-19 stock, which would give an appreciation of about 35%.
If we increase our assumptions about the growth rate for Omnivision to 12%, and allow for an exit multiple of 8x FCF, a 15% discount rate results in OVTI being valued around $21, or a potential 50% gainer. I would argue, however, that OVTI's recent sharp drop coupled with the huge cash position makes OVTI less of a risk now, and worthy of a lower discount rate - 12% for the discount makes OVTI appear to be 75% undervalued. Basically, its hard to justify this stock going much lower, and very easy to see this one running up toward $20.
One additional fact to note is that Omnivision does an exceptional job at creating value from invested capital; EBIT RoIC was 100% over the last four quarters. Although RoIC has been slipping slightly on a sequential basis, taking a slightly longer term time frame sees free cash flow RoIC climbing from 28% three years ago to over 75% today. This means, in simple terms, that for each dollar Omnivision has invested in its business today, it returns 75 cents in cash after everything else is accounted and paid for. Omnivision hasn't been skimping on spending for the future either; outlays for Research and Development and Capital Expenditures continue to increase, and as long as Omnivision can continue generating such high returns on capital, it looks to be well positioned to continue growing its bottom line.
Final thoughts: I think its a strong buy in the mid-$13s where it is now. If it goes lower, that just makes it look even more attractive.
In the words of the company:
Its image-sensing devices, referred under the name CameraChips, are used to capture an image and used in various commercial and consumer mass-market applications. The CameraChips are used in various consumer applications, such as camera cell phones, digital still and video cameras, personal computer camera applications, and interactive video and digital toy cameras. In addition, CameraChips are integrated into security and surveillance products and analog toy cameras, automotive products, and medical imaging devices. Further, it designs and develops software drivers for various computer operating systems, as well as embedded operating systems.
OVTI is trading near $13.60 and has a market cap around $750 million, thanks to Friday's 16% plunge off an earnings report. Part of the reason attributed to the drop was fears about pricing pressures hurting margins. Contracting margins are pretty much implied whenever you talk about semis, and although OVTI has experienced that over the last several years earnings and cash flow have continued to grow at a rapid clip, with adjusted net income doubling and adjusted free cash flow tripling in the last three and a half years. Based off market cap., OVTI trades for 8.5x trailing earnings, and 8x trailing free cash flow. But market cap only tells half the story; as Omnivision has over $380 million in net cash, or about $7 per share - this means you are getting nearly half of your share price in cash. Now when you consider that Omnivision actually has an enterprise value of $360 million, the stock is actually trading for under 5x earnings and under 4x free cash flow... both of those numbers are phenomenal.
Just because OVTI appears dirt cheap doesn't mean its a bad company, on the contrary, it has generated nearly $100 million in annual free cash flow over the last few years. Omnivision also has developed a new chip that changes the way autofocusing is processed, which allows for much quicker and clearer imaging. The all-digital process has the potential to eliminate any sort of manual focusing traditionally done with cameras, and I'm fairly sure that somewhere in my research I read that Omnivision has patentied the technology, which should be ready for commercial use within a few quarters. The company's expansion in security and medical imaging is also offering growth opportunities beyond the consumer electronics market of cameraphones and video recorders, so there is plenty of potential growth on top of that excellent financial footing.
Running a quick revenue and earnings projection concludes that top line growth of 15% over the next 5 years is manageable, with net income growing about 17% over that time period. The lastest consensus estimate from Wall Street was 20%, but I think you are going to see some waffling because of the quarterly disappointment... and I like to be conservative.
According to the valuation model, OVTI is priced for no free cash flow growth over the next five years, and has a terminal valuation of 5x FCF. Recall that OVTI is trading for just under 8x FCF right now... which I believe is extremely cheap in itself. But anyways, from the reverse engineering standpoint, OVTI is priced as being a company that will see no more growth, and will end up being valued at a 20% free cash flow yield. Think those pricing assumptions give you some margin of safety?
On the more realistic (but still conservative) side of pricing, lets assume that Omnivision manages to grow free cash flow at about 10% per year, or about 60% of what is forecast by a quick growth projection (I choose 60% because that leaves a 20% margin of safety and 20% for "excess return"). At 10% growth, and an end cash flow yield of about 15% (which matches the steep 15% discount rate I am applying to account for riskiness), OVTI appears to be an $18-19 stock, which would give an appreciation of about 35%.
If we increase our assumptions about the growth rate for Omnivision to 12%, and allow for an exit multiple of 8x FCF, a 15% discount rate results in OVTI being valued around $21, or a potential 50% gainer. I would argue, however, that OVTI's recent sharp drop coupled with the huge cash position makes OVTI less of a risk now, and worthy of a lower discount rate - 12% for the discount makes OVTI appear to be 75% undervalued. Basically, its hard to justify this stock going much lower, and very easy to see this one running up toward $20.
One additional fact to note is that Omnivision does an exceptional job at creating value from invested capital; EBIT RoIC was 100% over the last four quarters. Although RoIC has been slipping slightly on a sequential basis, taking a slightly longer term time frame sees free cash flow RoIC climbing from 28% three years ago to over 75% today. This means, in simple terms, that for each dollar Omnivision has invested in its business today, it returns 75 cents in cash after everything else is accounted and paid for. Omnivision hasn't been skimping on spending for the future either; outlays for Research and Development and Capital Expenditures continue to increase, and as long as Omnivision can continue generating such high returns on capital, it looks to be well positioned to continue growing its bottom line.
Final thoughts: I think its a strong buy in the mid-$13s where it is now. If it goes lower, that just makes it look even more attractive.
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Learn a Major Key of Cutting Your Losses Early!
One major importance while investing (including professionals) is cutting your losses early and before your in the whole complete. One problem can be not spending enough time to research and critically thinking through investments risks. To many times I see people spending all kinds of time of planning for the winning stock thats going to hit a grand slam for them. But they don't even think once about how or what percentage do we sell and take our losses or winnings.
The Factors that Really Drive Investors
People really are inconsistent in the thinking of investment risks. People think this is just a given with all the information out there...and you just have to find the low investment risks and find the highest return. Though, our studies show us something completely different.
Though, it's the way you view and look at things is a major key in this investing ideas of cutting your losses early. You must really start thinking about or driven by is it actually investing risk? Though, through our finding we have came to understand it's actually the loss. So now, your asking well what's the difference? Great questions and let us answer this question.
Here is an good example, you have to investment choices:
* Scenerio one: 80% potential of winning $4,000 versus a 20% potential of earning nothing
* Scenerio two: 100% potential of receiving $3,000.
Now to many this is a no brainer right of what you would choose? While the scenerio one is pontentially the better investment (with a pontential "expectation" of $3,200), 80% of people choose the scenerio two the 100% money. This means, they aren't willing to risk a small investment profit for a potentially bigger one.
Now let's look at the investment scenerios from a loss perspective, with the same scenerios:
* 80% pontential of losing $4,000 versus a 20% chance of breaking even, or
* 100% pontential of losing $3,000.
Now look at this closely, believe or not over 92% of people choose the first scenerio. They are willing to take this investment. This means, that 92% of the people will do just about anything to avoid an investment loss. When the investments involve losing money, 92% of us are risk-seekers, not risk reluctant.
Now we hope we have opened some eyes with this little example and investment scenerio. Also we hope to show you that a lot of us are not as consistent in our thinking in considering investment risks. And this kind of thinking can really come back to hurt you in your investments.
Investing lossess cut early...remember a major key or the golden rule
A major key or golden rule on investing is to "cut your losses early, short, and let your winners ride." Almost every successful investor in the world has his discipline and sticks by this rule - however, please not as well there are very few successful investors who regularly beat the markets. For the rest of us average joes (about 99% of investors) following this major key or golden rule seems too difficult. Look at what Peter Bernstein says in Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, "It is not so much that people hate uncertainty - but rather, they hate losing... A loss taken is an acknowledgement of error." That says it better then we could.
It's major key or golden rule is not just for the stock market. It's in all of life. Check out this example of investment risk, from Peter Bernstein...
* "Imagine that a rare disease is breaking out and is expected to kill 600 people. Two different programs are available to deal with the threat. If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program B is adopted there is a 33% probability that everyone will be saved and a 67% probability that no one will be saved.
* "Which program would you choose? If most of us are risk-averse, rational people will prefer Plan A's certainty of saving 200 lives over Plan B's gamble, which has the same mathematical expectancy but involves taking the risk of a 67% chance that everyone will die. [When given the choice], 72% of people chose the risk-averse response represented by Program A."
* "Now consider the identical problem posed differently. If Program C is adopted, 400 of the 600 people will die, while Program D entails a 33% probability that no one will die and a 67% probability that 600 people will die. Note that the first of the two choices is now expressed as 400 deaths rather than 200 survivors, while the second program offers a 33% chance that no one will die. ...78% of people quizzed were risk seekers and opted for the gamble: they could not tolerate the prospect of the sure loss of 400 lives."
Why Avoiding Hugh Investment Losses Is Key to Your Strategy
We, as investors, have to understand that we are not always going to know it all. What we are going to lose or gain. We need to be in the position whereby we are avoiding investment losses as much as possible. However, first, if we are to succeed in investing and stock market, we must learn to take cut our investment losses early. And this is because a small loss can't be allowed to become a BIG loss.
Smart investors come to understand the need to go against what most of the time feels natural. And that means learning to cut investment losses early, and learning to let winners ride. Put simply, the way you make money is to combine a few small losses with big winners.
In order to win the war on the street, you've got to learn to cut your losses. You need to man up and admit you're wrong.. That means recognizing the potential nature of human instinct and cut investment losses. And it means cutting your investment losses early before they can become big losses. It's never to late to start good discipline, especially in the investing!
Happy Holiday Investing!!
Investing Focus
www.investingfocus.com
"Your Start to a Future Financial Gain"
The Factors that Really Drive Investors
People really are inconsistent in the thinking of investment risks. People think this is just a given with all the information out there...and you just have to find the low investment risks and find the highest return. Though, our studies show us something completely different.
Though, it's the way you view and look at things is a major key in this investing ideas of cutting your losses early. You must really start thinking about or driven by is it actually investing risk? Though, through our finding we have came to understand it's actually the loss. So now, your asking well what's the difference? Great questions and let us answer this question.
Here is an good example, you have to investment choices:
* Scenerio one: 80% potential of winning $4,000 versus a 20% potential of earning nothing
* Scenerio two: 100% potential of receiving $3,000.
Now to many this is a no brainer right of what you would choose? While the scenerio one is pontentially the better investment (with a pontential "expectation" of $3,200), 80% of people choose the scenerio two the 100% money. This means, they aren't willing to risk a small investment profit for a potentially bigger one.
Now let's look at the investment scenerios from a loss perspective, with the same scenerios:
* 80% pontential of losing $4,000 versus a 20% chance of breaking even, or
* 100% pontential of losing $3,000.
Now look at this closely, believe or not over 92% of people choose the first scenerio. They are willing to take this investment. This means, that 92% of the people will do just about anything to avoid an investment loss. When the investments involve losing money, 92% of us are risk-seekers, not risk reluctant.
Now we hope we have opened some eyes with this little example and investment scenerio. Also we hope to show you that a lot of us are not as consistent in our thinking in considering investment risks. And this kind of thinking can really come back to hurt you in your investments.
Investing lossess cut early...remember a major key or the golden rule
A major key or golden rule on investing is to "cut your losses early, short, and let your winners ride." Almost every successful investor in the world has his discipline and sticks by this rule - however, please not as well there are very few successful investors who regularly beat the markets. For the rest of us average joes (about 99% of investors) following this major key or golden rule seems too difficult. Look at what Peter Bernstein says in Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, "It is not so much that people hate uncertainty - but rather, they hate losing... A loss taken is an acknowledgement of error." That says it better then we could.
It's major key or golden rule is not just for the stock market. It's in all of life. Check out this example of investment risk, from Peter Bernstein...
* "Imagine that a rare disease is breaking out and is expected to kill 600 people. Two different programs are available to deal with the threat. If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program B is adopted there is a 33% probability that everyone will be saved and a 67% probability that no one will be saved.
* "Which program would you choose? If most of us are risk-averse, rational people will prefer Plan A's certainty of saving 200 lives over Plan B's gamble, which has the same mathematical expectancy but involves taking the risk of a 67% chance that everyone will die. [When given the choice], 72% of people chose the risk-averse response represented by Program A."
* "Now consider the identical problem posed differently. If Program C is adopted, 400 of the 600 people will die, while Program D entails a 33% probability that no one will die and a 67% probability that 600 people will die. Note that the first of the two choices is now expressed as 400 deaths rather than 200 survivors, while the second program offers a 33% chance that no one will die. ...78% of people quizzed were risk seekers and opted for the gamble: they could not tolerate the prospect of the sure loss of 400 lives."
Why Avoiding Hugh Investment Losses Is Key to Your Strategy
We, as investors, have to understand that we are not always going to know it all. What we are going to lose or gain. We need to be in the position whereby we are avoiding investment losses as much as possible. However, first, if we are to succeed in investing and stock market, we must learn to take cut our investment losses early. And this is because a small loss can't be allowed to become a BIG loss.
Smart investors come to understand the need to go against what most of the time feels natural. And that means learning to cut investment losses early, and learning to let winners ride. Put simply, the way you make money is to combine a few small losses with big winners.
In order to win the war on the street, you've got to learn to cut your losses. You need to man up and admit you're wrong.. That means recognizing the potential nature of human instinct and cut investment losses. And it means cutting your investment losses early before they can become big losses. It's never to late to start good discipline, especially in the investing!
Happy Holiday Investing!!
Investing Focus
www.investingfocus.com
"Your Start to a Future Financial Gain"
China Technology Announced Proposed Annual Meeting of Shareholders and Substantial Shareholder Restructuring
HONG KONG, Nov. 30 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- China Technology Development Group Corporation CTDC ("CTDC" or "the Company") today announced the Company's Board of Directors ("the Board") convened a meeting attended by all board members on November 27, 2006. The Board reviewed and unanimously agreed that the 2006 Annual General Meeting of the shareholders (the "Annual Meeting") will be held on December 22 and the close of business on November 28, 2006, New York time, has been fixed as the record date of the Annual Meeting.
The Board also reviewed, approved and proposed for submission to the shareholders during the Annual Meeting, transactions involving the change of substantial shareholders through the sale of outstanding shares by existing substantial shareholders, and issuance of new shares and warrants for the purchase of new shares, by the Company to new investors (the "Proposed Transactions").
A full version of the notice of the Annual Meeting and the shareholders' circular are filed in Form 6-K together with copies of the executed agreements in connection with the Proposed Transactions, which is available at http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_sec.asp?selected=CTDC&symbol=CTDC .
About CTDC:
CTDC is engaged in information network security and nutraceutical business in the People's Republic of China. CTDC's existing major shareholder is Beijing Holdings Limited, a conglomerate with over $3 billion in total assets beneficially owned by the Beijing People's Municipal Government. For more information, please visit our website at www.chinactdc.com .
Forward-Looking Statement Disclosure
This press release of the Company, which is a foreign private issuer, on Form 6-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934. These statements relate to future events or the Company's future financial performance. The Company has attempted to identify forward-looking statements by terminology including "anticipates", "believes", "expects", "can", "continue", "could", "estimates", "expects", "intends", "may", "plans", "potential", "predict", "should", or "will" or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. These statements are only predictions, uncertainties and other factors may cause the Company's actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, level of activity, performance or achievements expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. The information in this Report on Form 6-K is not intended to project future performance of the Company. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in the forward- looking statements are reasonable, the Company does not guarantee future results, level of activity, performance or achievements. The Company's expectations are as of the date this Form 6-K is filed, and the Company does not intend to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date this Report on Form 6-K is filed to conform these statements to actual results, unless required by law.
Contact:
China Technology Development Group Corporation
Michael Siu, Executive Director, Chief Financial Officer and Secretary
Tel: +852-3112-8461
Email: investor.relations@chinactdc.com
michael.siu@chinactdc.com
Copyright 2006 PRNewswire
The Board also reviewed, approved and proposed for submission to the shareholders during the Annual Meeting, transactions involving the change of substantial shareholders through the sale of outstanding shares by existing substantial shareholders, and issuance of new shares and warrants for the purchase of new shares, by the Company to new investors (the "Proposed Transactions").
A full version of the notice of the Annual Meeting and the shareholders' circular are filed in Form 6-K together with copies of the executed agreements in connection with the Proposed Transactions, which is available at http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_sec.asp?selected=CTDC&symbol=CTDC .
About CTDC:
CTDC is engaged in information network security and nutraceutical business in the People's Republic of China. CTDC's existing major shareholder is Beijing Holdings Limited, a conglomerate with over $3 billion in total assets beneficially owned by the Beijing People's Municipal Government. For more information, please visit our website at www.chinactdc.com .
Forward-Looking Statement Disclosure
This press release of the Company, which is a foreign private issuer, on Form 6-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934. These statements relate to future events or the Company's future financial performance. The Company has attempted to identify forward-looking statements by terminology including "anticipates", "believes", "expects", "can", "continue", "could", "estimates", "expects", "intends", "may", "plans", "potential", "predict", "should", or "will" or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. These statements are only predictions, uncertainties and other factors may cause the Company's actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, level of activity, performance or achievements expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. The information in this Report on Form 6-K is not intended to project future performance of the Company. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in the forward- looking statements are reasonable, the Company does not guarantee future results, level of activity, performance or achievements. The Company's expectations are as of the date this Form 6-K is filed, and the Company does not intend to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date this Report on Form 6-K is filed to conform these statements to actual results, unless required by law.
Contact:
China Technology Development Group Corporation
Michael Siu, Executive Director, Chief Financial Officer and Secretary
Tel: +852-3112-8461
Email: investor.relations@chinactdc.com
michael.siu@chinactdc.com
Copyright 2006 PRNewswire
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