Thursday, April 13, 2006

What or where is the market going?

I think it would be nice to see the market crate in here, wring out
excessive fear, shoot confidence, create attractive valuations...

But I am afraid this may be wishful thinking. The reason the market
is so frustrating to both bulls and bears is because there aren't
really any events that can push it one way or the other.

Iran's nuclear ambitions are years away and they need money to
continue - oil is their only source of revenue...

High oil prices are inflationary and can slow the economy, but oil
is bid up on the expectation of continued demand - i.e. strong
economy, and each time there is a perception of slowing, oil prices
retreat from highs...

So the market continues its elaborate dance with oil and interest
rates in a narrowing range...

One area I am watching closely is oil services / related (ALJ, BAS,
NTG). If oil prices remain high, oil producers operating at
capacity may not be able to show explosive eps growth without new
discoveries or acqusitions. But they are likely to continue
drilling and pumping.

Though frustrating at times with the market. Just always remember
their is room for bears and bulls, but no room for pigs!!

No comments: